Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
